I’m often asked to weigh in on the latest health and longevity protocols. There are three critical mental models you should master to cut through the noise.
The Bullshit Asymmetry Principle
Brandolini’s Law: the amount of energy needed to refute misinformation is an order of magnitude larger than to produce it. With LLMs flooding social media, we’re in an arms race against automated misinformation. Imagine trying to shoot down a $200 drone with a $2 million rocket — this is how truth-seekers battle false health claims. Consumer beware.
Gibson’s Law
“For every PhD, there is an equal and opposite PhD.” No matter how wild the claim, there’s always an expert backing it up. Most people can’t properly dissect a scientific study — can they spot reproducibility issues, methodological flaws, conflicts of interest? Always follow the money. As Voltaire said, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.”
The Munger Razor
Charlie Munger: “Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.” Ask yourself: What’s the incentive of the person giving advice? Are they presenting solid evidence? What measurable change will you see if you follow their advice?
Your health isn’t generic, so your wellness routine shouldn’t be either. Don’t be fooled by influencers flaunting six-packs and $20 green juices. If the advice comes with a barcode and “Like and subscribe,” steer clear.
